A Tale of Two Primaries: The Fifty State Campaign

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Associated Press: Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and his wife Jane Sanders, right, wave to supporters during a campaign rally in Laramie, Wyo., Tuesday, April 5, 2016. Sanders won the Democratic presidential primary in Wisconsin Tuesday. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)

In a rare off-week in the primary season, candidates from both parties have been barnstorming Wisconsin and looking farther to New York. For political pundits and reporters, declaring this year’s primary campaigns to be anomalous would be an immense understatement. Outsider candidates, dark money from PACs, populist support, and large primary fields along with the close delegate counts in both contests make this year’s primaries the most unusual contests since World War 2. Candidates are still furiously campaigning at a point in many prior campaigns when the party’s nominee would already be a foregone conclusion. 

In 2008, Barack Obama’s primary campaign success over Hillary Clinton was based on a fifty state strategy of gaining primary delegates in caucus states where the enthusiasm of his supporters could be converted into lopsided delegate wins. By the time the Clinton campaign realized what was happening, it was already too late. He nursed a lead into the national convention and persuaded enough super delegates to support his nomination.  

This year, both parties are engaged in fifty state campaigns and have employed a variety of strategies. On the Democratic side, the Clinton campaign seems to have learned its lesson from 2008 and is holding on to a small but significant delegate lead created by an aggressive national ground campaign. The Sanders campaign has the enthusiasm of the Obama campaign but so far has lacked the clear analytical strategy which was the latter’s hallmark.  

On the Republican side, the picture is more complex. What was once a seventeen candidate field has been whittled down to three. The Trump campaign has successfully leveraged mass media to reach out and engage with Republican voters whose defining characteristic seems to be a dislike and anger with establishment candidates. The Cruz campaign has tried to replicate the Obama campaign’s analytical focus but without the broad excitement that characterized it. The Kasich campaign at this point is simply trying to hold on hoping for a contested convention where he can present himself as a compromise on a second ballot.  

These two fifty state campaigns offer voters in every state the rare opportunity to meet and even speak with candidates. This offers voters a rare opportunity and the evidence so far is that the two parties differ significantly. Democrats are more content with their primary choices than are Republicans. This bodes poorly for the GOP as it looks toward the 2016 general elections as it will have to work hard to convince unhappy supporters to vote for a candidate they already voted against. Moreover, the specter of a third party run by a disgruntled losing candidate hangs over contest. 

In the end however, both parties despite the current rhetoric will unify around their nominated candidate. The question is how many voters heed their parties’ call? At this point, it seems that more voters with a Democratic-leaning will rally in November.

By: John Laprise
7 April 2016
Politics
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Listening to Republicans Talk about their Primary: It’s About GOP Impotence

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Associated Press: Republican presidential candidates, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., businessman Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich take the stage before a Republican presidential primary debate at Fox Theatre, Thursday, March 3, 2016, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Republicans were very optimistic about their array of primary candidates at the start of the primary season. If you were reading the blogs, op-eds, and comments at Red State, Breitbart, TownHall or the Weekly Standard, it seemed clear that everyone from the grass roots on up thought that voters were being presented with a wide array of acceptable choices. 

Then Donald Trump proved not to be the paper tiger they thought.

Now, these same voices are unconsciously grieving. For some, this is the loss of what seemed like an easy opportunity to win the White House. For others, it is the appropriation and twisting of conservative values. Another group of voices mourn the passing of the GOP as they knew it. Republicans who oppose Donald Trump’s seem to be working their way through the traditional stages of grief:

Denial: By now the evidence is sufficiently strong and most Republicans concede that Donald Trump is the frontrunner for their party’s nomination. Most is not all however and there are still voices online who point firmly believe that Trump’s success to date will not continue owing to a variety of factors such as demographics, primary vs. caucus, and party mobilization.

Anger: Many Trump opponents are deeply angry with how his unconventional campaign has upended what was thought to be a well-established process. There is also a significant amount of frustration that he is proving highly resilient to the kinds of attacks he levels against his competitors. There is a lot of discussion about laying blame for his success with the Republican leadership, pundits, and the media.

Bargaining: How to avoid a Trump nomination is the topic of the day. Much of it revolves around the voluntary withdrawal of candidates to strengthen the remaining members sufficiently to triumph in future primaries. Left unsaid is that none of these candidates are willing to withdraw because of the Trump campaign. A second bargaining thread threatens to vote for the democratic candidate should Trump be nominated.

Depression: Many voices also express a great sadness over the state of the primary race. Some fear that this all but guarantees another electoral loss in the next election. Others are concerned that a Trump candidacy will wreck the party.

Acceptance: Those Republicans who have accepted Trump’s success in the primaries have begun charting courses forward. A few party stalwarts are reluctantly accepting his success. Others though are striving to rally anti-Trump forces and prevent his nomination by pointing out the weaknesses that to date do not resonate with Trump supporters but which they hope might persuade uncommitted voters in the remaining primary states.

In short, the Republicans are strewn out across the mourning process for their dashed hopes and dreams and the rise of a candidate so many conservative activists abhor. The Republican Party has always been a deceptively big tent encompassing voters from a variety of constituencies: small government, anti-tax, foreign policy, cultural conservatives, and evangelical Christians. Trump supporters hail from all of these groups. They are the discontent. Surprised by President Obama’s election and reelection, they found the GOP’s promises to oppose and roll back his policies to be hollow. After years of broken promises, they view the Party as impotent and Trump as Viagra.

Trump’s Republican foes are mourning the loss of fellow Republicans who have lost faith in the Party and the GOP lacks a means to restore that faith.

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By: John Laprise

North Korea Launches a Space Missile

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The actual north-south border post at Panmunjon, Democratic People's Republic of Korea -DMZ

On February 7th, North Korea launched a long-range rocket with what it seems to be a satellite. According to the North Korea officials, the satellite, Kwangmyongsong-4, is making a polar orbit of Earth every 94 minutes.

North Korea's National Aerospace Development Administration stated that launch was “"an epochal event in developing the country's science, technology, economy and defense capability by legitimately exercising the right to use space for independent and peaceful purposes." North Korea’s embassy in Moscow released a statement saying that the country will continue to launch rockets with Earth observation satellites.

North Korea has informed the Unite Nations agencies about their plans for launching a rocket that will carry a satellite. North Korea states that the purpose of this launch was peaceful and solely scientific. From the other side, some believe that the launch is just a cover-up for testing a missile that could reach the USA.

The UN Security Council had a closed emergency meeting on Sunday, stating that they believe the launch represented a “serious threat” and they will respond with “significant measures.” The USA and South Korea plan to develop a defense mechanism called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, which will be able to interact with missiles in flight. Also, there is a significant international pressure on China, the biggest investor in North Korea, to implement some sanctions that could destabilize North Korea’s economy.

CNN, Fox News, Reuters

Gildshire Editor, Elvira Barucija

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By: Gildshire

A Mob of Masked Men Attacked Refugee Children in Stockholm

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On January 29, a group of men attacked unsupervised children on the central Stockholm train station. According to the Daily Mail, men beat up refugees and anyone who didn’t look ethnically Swedish. Right before the attack, approximately 200 people handed out xenophobic leaflets with a message – “It’s Enough Now.” The message referred to a death of young Alexandra Mezher, who was stabbed to death at the child center. She was stabbed by 15-year-old, Somali migrant while she was trying to break a fight between two asylum-seekers.

Authorities have confirmed that a group of soccer hooligans, wearing balaclavas and armbands “gathered with the purpose of attacking refugee children.” Swedish police department arrested four people in this case; one for attacking a police officer and three people were arrested for wearing a mask in public, which is illegal in Sweden.

Sweden is facing a problem of Moroccan children who are under 18 years, and applying for asylum without a parent or guardian. According to the Sweden police department, these children are leaving housing provided by the government and staying around the central Stockholm train station, while living off criminal activities.

Sweden took more than 160,000 refugees last year. Authorities have announced their decision to deport 80,000 people seeking asylum, who don’t meet criteria set by Sweden government. According to the head of Swedish migration agency, citizens from war-torn countries like Syria have a greater chance to stay in Sweden.

Independent, Daily Mail

Gildshire Editor, Elvira Barucija

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By: Gildshire
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